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Be cautious when things are optimistic, be different when things look bad. COSCO is down 12% today, Harbour is only down 6-7%. Reason? Because harbour is diversified with other income division such as O&G, logistics etc other than container shipping. Robust domestic trade would shield harbour from dropping too much compared to pure container players. Not to mention, Red Sea crisis doesn’t just end over an agreement. News is news, I’m not surprised if I see another news reporting conflict again suddenly. Don’t look at headlines, look at specific actions - for example, has any shipping companies say that they’re going to go back to Red Sea now?
Don’t get easily tricked by headline is one of important lesson investor needs to learn. If not we will forever be at mercy of those big crocs
Two things to know
1) HAPAG LLYOD CEO just voiced out that the Red Sea diversion wouldn’t just turn around and all vessels go back so soon. Reason is simple, Houthis say they fight for Palestine, but no one knows if the attack is continuing. U can search for the news in google yourself. But again like I’ve always said, rates are expected to peak at Q3, so I still see this as a sudden catalyst removal that led investors to panic.Otherwise harbour fundamental remains unchanged as of now
2) hamas replied with amendments on ceasefire agreement, no one knows how Israel is gonna respond yet. Market hates uncertainty and people are just leaving to be safe
Key is here is that those who bet for rates going higher up to Q4 are leaving, those who know that harbour fundamental remains strong will stay. My avg price was at 1.2+ and I sold off majority at 1.8 when I commented yesterday morning. I picked up a few on 1.63 earlier this morning and I will cut off if it drops below 1.43. I assume that at least there will be a rebound tmr or end of the week. If you’re not a risk taker, no point recollecting now if you’re not confident. Know your own limits and preferences of investment. I’m here to give opinions and share insights, at the end everyone has their own investment style and there’s no right or wrong
A disclaimer that I am all in for a ceasefire for humanitarian reasons. But the fact is that hamas didn’t agree to the deal yet, they resubmitted a amendment which Israel didn’t yet agree: but if you look at headlines it sounded as if hamas was agreed and Israel had too, and plus share price drop it seemed like the news was true. Retailers alike will dump like crazy thinking rates are crumbling. But the truth is that it’s uncertain yet. I hope the suffering ends for them but realistically I am not too sure if it ends here and then so quickly. I doubt Israel will agree upfront, it would almost mean like a surrender (Israel officials say that, not me)
