No, I don't think it will merge with intel. Intel is going to merge with GF, I don't think tsmc wants intel fab.
Yes, they are going to bring more advance tech to the US soon, ramping up ahead of schedule and invest MORE, just like the Japanese did. I view this as the US is acknowledging the Satu China polisi, and they are preparing for that day to come.

TSMC is expected to announce up to 3 measures to head off US tariffs against Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, after its USA board meeting (Feb. 11-12), the FT reports, citing unnamed sources:
1. TSMC may upgrade US fabs to more advanced processes faster than expected
2. TSMC may commit to additional US investments
3. TSMC may build an advanced chip packaging plant in the US

According to discussions within the Asian semiconductor supply chain, Baird’s analyst Tristan Gerra stated that the U.S. government might intervene, prompting TSMC to dispatch engineers to Intel’s 3nm/2nm wafer fabrication facility, leveraging TSMC’s expertise to ensure that the facility and Intel’s subsequent manufacturing projects operate successfully.

In addition, the analyst added that Intel's fab may be split into a new entity jointly owned by TSMC and Intel and operated by TSMC, and this new entity will receive funding from the US Chip Act.

Baird noted that while it has not yet been confirmed and the potential completion of this project could take a long time, the move makes sense. Analysts believe that Intel will benefit from significant cash flow relief and will focus on design and platform solutions; at the same time, a viable fab could eventually attract major fabless companies to move to a geographically reliable manufacturing model.

Baird maintains a neutral rating on Intel. ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

It will take a long time for Intel to come up to the same level as tsmc. By that time, Trump will be out of office. And TSMC is not to be underestimated. They always have a trump card under their sleeve. For now TSMC will knowledge transfer in order to continue getting protection from USA and avoiding tariff. Note that TSMC already capable of making 1 nanometer.

And also note that..it's still in negotiation phase. Not yet confirmed. My take is that they're just twisting TSMC's arm to find out how far tsmc can bend. But America knows they cannot push TSMC too far. They know this is not the time to dilly dally experimenting on Intel's capability. China will catch up.

Capable or not it's not really that important in this business. The yield and the ability to deliver is the most important factor.
Taiwan confirm will go into longkang if TSMC latest tech is being developed in the US but not their homesoil. I have a contrarian view on this, and I believe the selloff doesn't make sense. Let's wait for the official statement from the trump administration.

Intel-TSMC Rumor: Goldman Sachs’s Opinion

TSMC and Intel’s Potential Joint Venture
1. Background of the Joint Venture and Strategic Considerations
According to media reports, there is discussion about Intel spinning off its semiconductor manufacturing division to collaborate with TSMC.
However, the two companies employ different business models and manufacturing processes (facilities and technologies), which would necessitate additional investment. Moreover, considering that TSMC’s advanced node technology and proprietary processes are at the core of its competitiveness, the strategic benefits of such a joint venture are unclear.
Additionally, TSMC tends to avoid joint ventures to maintain neutrality with its other customers, and sharing technology with a direct competitor like Intel could threaten its market position.

2. Antitrust and Other Issues
Given the market dominance of both companies, a potential joint venture could raise antitrust issues.
For reference, Intel and UMC announced a collaboration in January 2024 to develop a 12nm process platform, which can be seen as a strategically positive case of cooperation.

3. Tariff Impact Analysis
Although there is speculation that the U.S. government might impose tariffs on Taiwanese chips, TSMC does not directly export finished products to the United States; instead, it supplies semiconductors to post-processing partners. As a result, the direct impact of tariffs is likely to be limited.
Instead, these tariffs are more likely to affect the downstream supply chain or final customers.

4. Mitigating Production Concentration Risks and Customer Response
With 95% of TSMC’s total production capacity concentrated in Taiwan, the company is pushing to expand production in the United States to meet American customer demands and mitigate the risks associated with production concentration.
1. Factory Operation Plans:
• The first U.S. factory is scheduled to start operations in the first half of 2025.
• The second factory is planned for 2028, and the third for 2030.
2. Investment Scale:
• The total investment in Arizona is expected to exceed $65 billion, which is projected to increase the U.S. sales share from less than 1% in 2024 to a low single-digit percentage in 2025–2026.

5. Global Diversity and Expansion Strategy
The composition of TSMC’s board reflects its global expansion strategy, as six out of ten board members are from outside Taiwan, indicating a commitment to global strategy and growth in diverse markets.

No. They point is, US is in no position to threaten tsmc.
1} they cannot tariff unfinished products ie. wafer
2) they cannot let china take tsmc then USA will fall 10 years behind in semiconductor tech
3} rumours might be fake cause Intel already came up with 18A wafer technology which is faster than tsmc 2nm. But tsmc has higher yield and wafer is denser.

Basically empty threats.

Micron Technology has purchased a factory from Taiwan display maker AUO for NT$3.05 billion (US$93 million) in Taichung, central Taiwan, its 2nd factory purchase in recent months, media report, after last August paying NT$700 for another one. Micron plans to use the plants for packaging.

Why micron, intel continues to invest in Taiwan/China after Trump talked shit?

If you think Taiwan will go back to China. Then you don't understand Taiwanese. Taiwanese, Koreans, Japanese..they hate China. Taiwan wants to protect Tsmc business secret to maintain its silicon shield. America thinks protecting Taiwan is costly and they want something in return. Once they make a deal, everything will be back to normal and TSMC will start going up.

Japanese ruled Taiwan from 1895–1945. (50 years) Most of T20 have Japanese bloodline. After Japan’s defeat, the Republic of China, led by the KMT, took control of Taiwan in 1945. When the Chinese Civil War ended in 1949, the ROC retreated to Taiwan, and the People's Republic of China was established on the mainland. The question now is... Should China be rule by ROC or Taiwan to be rule by PRC? Both are chinese too. Hahahahaha. Regardless black dog or white dog, the first dog who eat dog meat are the worst of the dog race.

Trump is making a huge mistake for Usa now. It is very possible that another 911 event is about to happen in the next 5 year just before Trump loses the next election. XD. TIME TO ASK BURSA TO ALLOW RETAILER TO SHORT (RSS)!

Only Trump think its allies is taking advantage of Usa. But it is because of 911 that Usa trying to help its allies to become strong economically and deal with terrorism together. And Usa got its peace for 24 years after 911, 2001. Similar to WHO Aids, Usa have the most Aids at that time. Usa donate to WHO to stop the virus spreading to the T20 in USA. The only way to kill a virus is to make sure B80 of the world have the vaccine.

@TN
Good analysis. He's just an idiot.
There are two types of people in the US, one is the elite, staying at the west course. Another one is MAGAs, bunch of uneducated people staying at the middle of nowhere...
Tariff is a double edge sword, his billionaire wall street friends know this very well...

@TN
I disagree. I think they can take over Taiwan within 1 week easily without interruption coming from the US. Just by counting how many nuclear bomb China + Russia has, you might know the answer already.
Plus xi is old already. His 宏愿 is what? What he wants to accomplish before retire?

It's always welcome to see other's opinion, I don't think there's a need to delete the post lar. I think the main reason China choose to avoid military conflict with Taiwan is that they wish to merge peacefully with them.

China has always wanted to reunite with Taiwan, and there's nothing that we can do about that. Trump administration under Elon's influence will act accordingly by forcing the Taiwanese to build more plants in arizona to prepare for the day.

https://youtu.be/vOS_8QwlmIw?si=odNw3nbDtVGloTQw

Please watch why USA protecting South Korea and Taiwan. Taiwan in no way will be allowed to fall into China's hands. These are all Fear Uncertainties and Doubt (FUD). I personally know people who work in semiconductor industry for many years. They're saying in no way Taiwan can fall and it's almost impossible to knowledge transfer and move the whole production away from Taiwan. Arizona is currently only supporting 20 percent of 5 nanometer demand. Board members of Intel trying to get the government to force TSMC to absorb all their foundries. That's all. Pet Gelssinger the former CEO of Intel got fired last month for not agreeing to it. Until now they haven't hire a CEO. IF and it's a big IF. If they manage to convice tsmc to somehow bypass anti trust law and absorb Intel's failing foundries. TSMC will have the ultimate monopoly. Samsung foundries will fall next. No civil war no 911. Deepstate already got their hands tied.

@master dip
Never say never. US is 'protecting' them or just using them as a shield to shield off China?
I'm in this industry, and what I can say is, you need to study the history before making assumptions. In the 1980s, US forced Japan to sign several agreements that in the end crippled their semiconductor industry. It's dangerous to be US enemy, but it's fatal to be US ally.

Usa is no longer usa. Let call it Trump nation. Trump was hoping China will scare Taiwan enough so Taiwan start moving their asset into Trump Nation. On global war, Trump basically said we dont need Nato approval for anything. Trump secretly inform Ukraine that if you dont hit hard at Russia, you will be part of Russia. Go all in or all out. Ukraine need to stop following Nato rules. On Gaza, Trump want to use Gaza to showcase Trump Nation Military Power. Of cos, he promise to build a mini Maralago estates. Trump was gonna die with massive debt. But it seem that Trump wanted to be remember as the first president who use nuke in the modern era. Majority of those who are took part im nagasaki and hiroshima boming are already gone or too old to remember.

I don't think he will nuke any country. His team is full of billionaires, and he knows what's the economy implication if there's a nuclear war.
Besides that, he's not the president, but Elon is. Don't worry too much and have a pessimistic view. As I said, he's a sok chun orange man with no 'real' power.

Do you really think Trump love all billionaire? Trump dont care about the economy. And Elon was just a joker who take no salary. A boot licker. Just wait for china and euro attack Tesla. Trump truly only care about his pride and respect. I bet too he has more friend in military defense contractor. Anyway let see if all hostage release this saturday and what Trump gonna do .. what do all hell break lose means?

Plaza Accord..yes I'm aware..US tricked Japan into signing plaza Accord crippled it's economy then along came George Soros short sell yen and create asian financial crisis. Like Kissinger said, Americans are dangerous and it's fatal to be their friends. Agreed. But it's two different scenarios.
USA wanted to beat Japan's cheap export and stop their growth. They crippled Japan's economy and then bear their exports.
Trump is doing something similar here. He wants to break the trade defecit. He wants USA to be the export super power again. The difference with now is.. Taiwan's IP and taiwanese work culture. They cannot compete with that. And plus, R&D is in Taiwan. If Taiwan ceases to exist.. tsmc Arizona and many other semiconductor companies will come to a grinding halt. To build plant 3 and 4 in USA and to bring it up to the same level as Taiwan will take decades. Plaza Accord wanted American made products to beat japanese made exports.
Tell me this, which fab in USA has technology and yield that's even close to TSMC? None.

Let's see. My view is that, the billionaires are not the bootlickers (except zuckerberg), especially elon.
Don't overthink, just accept it when sh*t happens. Elon publically said before, he don't think slapping a 100% tariffs on something that US doesn't manufacture is a good idea.
I think trump is an idiot, but Elon is not an idiot.