This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on February 17, 2025 - February 23, 2025

It will be a busy week filled with economic highlights and corporate earnings. Topping the list is Malaysia’s trade data for January, due on Thursday, followed by inflation figures the next day.

UOB Global Economics and Markets Research estimates a small uptick in both exports and imports. According to UOB, exports are expected to expand by a moderate 4.5% year on year from 16.9% y-o-y in December 2024, while imports are expected to rise modestly by 0.5% y-o-y from 11.9% in December. The trade surplus is expected to narrow to RM15.2 billion from RM19.2 billion in December.

UOB also expects headline inflation to rise to 1.8% y-o-y in January from 1.7% in December.

Across Asia, a raft of trade data is also due from India, Indonesia and Thailand.

Bloomberg estimates India’s trade deficit to narrow to US$21 billion (RM93.13 billion) in January from US$21.94 billion in December, while Indonesia is expected to report a smaller trade surplus of US$1.861 billion compared with US$2.239 billion in that same period.

As for Thailand, Bloomberg sees its trade deficit widening sharply in January to US$1.6 billion, from US$11 million in December. Thailand is also set to publish its 4Q2024 gross domestic product data on Monday. Bloomberg consensus has a forecast growth clip of 3.8% y-o-y in 4Q2024, from 3% in 3Q2023, taking full year 2024 growth to 2.7% from 1.9% in 2023.

Across the Causeway, the highlights of the week include the release of Singapore’s January non-oil domestic exports data on Monday and its FY2025 budget statement, which will be delivered by Prime Minister Lawrence Wong in parliament on Tuesday.

Following the budget announcement, parliament will continue discussions on the various budget measures, with further details expected to be unveiled during the upcoming Committee of Supply debate, UOB said in its weekly outlook report last Friday.

Meanwhile, three major central banks in Asia-Pacific are set to announce their monetary policy decisions this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) are both holding their February policy meetings, with rate cuts reportedly on the table, according to consensus.

According to a Bloomberg poll, 25 of 28 analysts expect the RBA to cut the RBA cash rate target by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.1%, while three analysts expect no change to the policy rate at the Tuesday meeting. UOB economist Lee Sue Ann is with the majority, expecting a 25bps cut.

“Weak 4Q2024 Consumer Price Index (CPI) reinforces our view that the RBA can cut rates in February, with headline inflation coming in below the mid-point of the RBA’s 2% to 3% target band. This downside miss to the central bank’s projections is likely to prompt it to revise lower its inflation forecasts to kick off its easing cycle,” said UOB.

According to a Bloomberg survey, all 15 economists polled expect RBNZ to cut its policy rate by 50bps to 3.75%.

On the other hand, Bloomberg consensus expects Bank Indonesia (BI) to leave the policy rate unchanged at 5.75% when it meets on Wednesday.

UOB economist Enrico Tanuwidjaja also expects the BI to stay on hold in February, as its recent monetary policy direction focuses on maintaining economic stability by strengthening pro-market monetary operations, attracting capital inflows, maintaining rupiah stability and improving the digital payment system. Thereafter, he expects two more 25bps rate cuts, each in 2Q2025 and 3Q2025 to 5.25% and then a stay at that level throughout the rest of the year.

On Friday, S&P Global Market Intelligence will publish February’s flash manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for major economies including the US, UK, eurozone, Japan, Australia and India.

In the US, nearly 600 US companies will release their quarterly earnings this week, of which 41 are S&P 500-listed firms.

Elsewhere, attention will be on the G20 foreign ministers meeting in South Africa from Feb 20 to 21.

In the local courts, the hearing of former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB)-Tanore trial continues on Tuesday before Justice Datuk Collin Lawrence Sequerah. Najib is on trial for four counts of abuse of power and 21 counts of money laundering involving RM2.28 billion of 1MDB’s funds.

On the corporate front, major earnings reports due to be released this week by Bursa Malaysia-listed companies include that of Hartalega Holdings Bhd (KL:HARTA) and Maxis Bhd (KL:MAXIS) on Tuesday; AMMB Holdings Bhd (KL:AMBANK), Inari Amertron Bhd (KL:INARI) and YTL Power International Bhd (KL:YTLPOWR) on Thursday; and MISC Bhd (KL:MISC), Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd (KL:PCHEM), Petronas Gas Bhd (KL:PETGAS) and Sports Toto Bhd (KL:SPTOTO) on Friday.

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