我自己没有买TMK 也不打算买。average up 和average down 其实都可以赚钱。所以不要用自己那一套说别人股市做错决定。股市什么都有可能的。
最重要是你的策略是什么 就好像以下情况
财报一出 是有几个可能出现。
财报差 股价跌
财报差 股价升
财报好 股价跌
warren 你想好了没有？

股市只有两种人是长期投资者。 一个是住高楼又不能cut loss. 另一个是买到价钱非常底。

FIFO 了dialog和notion………notion 935,940清仓了，,dialog还有一半cost 1.47…………这就是不要满仓的好处,机会来了就可以扫货秒套利哈哈哈哈哈…………可惜买的的时候没带iPad,没得留言刷存在感哈哈哈哈哈…………. 最开心是云顶,告诉你3.5多扫货你敢吗,我有通水的哈哈哈哈哈哈哈………今天走路有龙卷风哈哈哈哈哈哈哈………….. 闪人

Dialog 冲啊………. 再套利一半……….147仓剩下四分之一………. 那天147这个价位像瀑布一般涌出来,看你敢买吗…….. 这种好股跌法是割老板良机,老板大户一定出手扶盘的不然亏死它们然后不小心中margin call更死哈哈哈哈哈哈…………ybs今天也fifo成功,通水一下我已套利清仓了………….. 马股主题是20 26旅游年,自己找机会低价买入aviation,hospitality,consumer,reit sector………. 今年财政预算案一定会出台很多对旅游业支持的政策的………. 当然不是马上涨,大户需要收巨量的票,然后推上去分几个月才出完货的………..闪人不回复……….

之前朋友们一直叫买手套股说流感在北京很严重床位都不够,我说别笑死我了,你快点在业绩前出货清仓，我在中国十几天没一个人带口罩，问北京做旅游的朋友，他说冬天当然多人伤风感冒，北京酒店爆满价格一直在起。。。。。。。台湾第一旅游选择还是日本。。。。。。讲了N次，流感有疫苗打的，而且是季节性的，夏天一来就消失无踪，这是普通常识来的。。。。。。别看太多抖音和小红书视频，那些都是要流量夸大其实的，不要呆子看了视频以为有第一手消息以为只有你看到哈哈哈哈哈。。。。。。。闪人不回复

harta冲啊………. 再套利爽爽……….171仓………. 刚刚你敢买吗…….. 这种好股跌法是割老板良机,老板大户一定出手扶盘的不然亏死它们然后不小心中margin call更死哈哈哈哈哈哈…………今天fifo成功,通水一下我已套利清仓了………….. 马股主题是20 26旅游年,自己找机会低价买入，我讲的出就是要你们帮手接票做韭菜！哈哈哈，闪人不回复……….

*Key Messages from Harta 3QFY25 Briefing? (UOBKH)*

*Surprisingly negative tones from management, causing share prices of glove stocks declining c.15% during the briefing ?.*

*i) Volume sales:* 7.6b in 3QFY25(+12% qoq). There’s delayed shipment of 300m pieces of gloves order due to port congestion issues. This 300m pieces delayed shipment have carried forward to March quarter (4QFY25) and managed to ship out.

*- Volume sales?.* While volume sales c.2.5b pieces throughout Oct-Dec 24, upcoming Jan-March Q will see a *13-19% volume sales decline.* For 4QFY25 (March Quarter), management guided utilisation rate of 70-75% (from current 86%). This worked out to be c.2.1b-2.2b pcs/month vs 3QFY25’s c.2.5b (Dec 24) volume sales.

*- Volume sales?.* Weaker QoQ volume sales mainly due to frontloaded purchase by US clients, causing excess inventories to only be depleted in April-May. Expect normalisation of purchase pattern from US customers only in 2Q25 (calendar year).

*ii) Capacity ?:* Progressively commissioned new lines in NGC 1.5, and in 3QFY25 running capacity of 37b by end-FY25. Ramp-up costs of this 37b capacity (additional 10 production lines) have been partially factored in 2QFY25 previously, only additional labour cost incurred in 3QFY25.

*iii) Utilisation rate ?:* Utilisation rate +9% qoq to 86% on adjusted capacity of c.35b.

*iv) ASP ?:* QoQ, blended ASP improved c.4% in 3QFY25 to c.US$22.20/1k pcs. Management guided that blended ASP in 4QFY25 (March Q) will likely be flattish, as they are rolling over ASP level and maintain through March-April.

*v) Cost?:* Raw material cost decreased c.5% qoq in 3QFY25, recent months stabilised and easily passed through by higher ASP. Natural gas cost flattish in 3QFY25.

*vi) China competition??:* Channel checks revealed that China players lowered ASP and selling c.US$15 (previously US$16-17) in Europe regions. *China may look to shift their previous aggregate supply to US of c.30b pieces in phases.* Intco building a plant in Indonesia, at stage of building columns, another China players wanted to invest in Indonesia, some looking at Cambodia, or partnership to expand plant in Vietnam or Thailand. Earliest maybe by mid-2026.

*vi) Rationalisation and Rightsizing in Motion?.* Harta is intensifying cost rationalisation, previously carrying additional headcounts (plant 8 and 9) in anticipation on turning on these lines and because gov’s foreign workers quota. Previously foreign workers level kept at highest level possible, now looking to establish rational capacity. *Looking to reduce headcount from 8k to 7k within 2 quarters* (sufficient for 2.3b pcs production/month

*My two cents and views?*

? *Not out of the woods yet?.* Expect selldown in near-term on seemingly challenging outlook and weak 1Q25 (Jan-March) guidance. Believe such trend will be similar across other domestic glovemakers.

? *Maintain HOLD,* our current TP of RM3.66 is under review.

? *While we’ve consistently highlighted our neutral view as opposed to several bullish peers⚖️,* we advocated investors to take profit since Jan 2025. At this level, we’ll be monitoring closely for entry points instead especially after this selldown.

? *Dont follow the herds?.* While 1Q25 earnings may not be great, 2Q25 onwards the restocking activities from US customers will again return, lifting volume sales by c.20-25% off 1Q25’s low base. *Look for entry points again when the coast is clear.*