His memos are very useful.
I agree with what he said in the memo. What he doesn't know is Nvidia is a semiconductor player, and every single semiconductor business is cyclical in nature. When the CSP are satisfied with the amount of compute that they have, we will witness a huge drop in terms of revenue for every single of them.

He's not an equity investor but a credit investor. His calls are mostly chun, but I disagree with him at this moment.
AI demand is not driven by business (profit and etc), it's driven by do or die. For example Google, if they fail to acquire and build the necessary infra within these few years, their search business (Ads) will no longer be relevant in the future.

It's also a race between US and China. Whoever that successfully invent the AGI will win the race. That's the reason why US doesn't allow Nvidia to sell their advanced GPUs to China. The demand/race/real world applications are REAL...
Just ignore the stupid market noise (recession, bubble, and etc)...

Every innovation eventually ceases to be an innovation; in doing so,it follow a path of market penetration and eventual saturation. This is a time less truth. Initially , every new innovation (railroads,automobiles ,radios, televisions , conputers , the internet,etc) begin at a relatively high price point that only a small market segment can afford. Progress in Technology and Manufacturing gradually reduces the relative price of the new product.
This leads to market penetration in which more and more potential users can acquire the new product or service. At some point market saturation is reached.: all firm and households that will buy and use the new product have access to it.

Biden能限制的了多少？
他老人家多一个礼拜就走了，之后就是trump进白宫，有何意义呢？trump如今身边多了那么多的boot lickers，Elon & Jeff bezos & Mark。。。他可是只要你投资1个billion usd在美国，就可以让企业无视对大自然的破坏，给你什么都做的哦。加上如果这个政策真的能住止中国拿到nvidia的神卡，那么为何一开始就不这么做呢？如果真的能住止中国拿到神卡，trump会说这个是biden的功劳吗？

说AI是泡沫的我真的觉得他不明白现在在想什么。要清楚AI不是一个选择，那是个刚需。如果你是一名工程师，AI能帮你的东西有太多了。虽然如今的Model还是吐很多bugs的code，还需要人手去fix，但是距离真正能直接用AI来做coding的日子真的不远了。未来的工程师连syntax都不用记，只需要知道logics跟基本的语言就可以了。。。
接下来他会enable更多的softwares，让他们更加容易使用，不再需要复杂的页面，用语言就可以控制你想要的东西。。。

当然，这种历史级别的order量不可能永远都是那么高，时间久了当CSP的inventory都够吃的时候，就是nvidia爆跌的时候了。所以你看nvidia一直推出新的产品，试图摆脱semicon行业一直都是cyclical industry的现实。
2025年如果你看CSP的年度capex来猜测，芯片巨头的好日子应该还是很爽的。借鉴howard marks在memo里面提到的，如果nvidia要维持现在的高估值，就必须要能sustain这个历史级别的revenue下去，不然一点点的失望，就会让market送你去荷兰。

CISCO System….The darling of internet era,from March 1989 through May 1993: CISCO System reported 15 out of 17 quarters of earnings increases of 100% or more,with the other two quarters at 92% and 71% respectively. Cisco’s stock price advanced more than 13-fold during this period……..
Starting in April 2000, CISCO systems plunged 90% from its high in 30 months.
有人会说，NVIDIA 又不是 CISCO Systems…. 做的東西也不一样，那里可以比。
但是，当market crash 時，订单开始大量少时…….history will repeat itself……..

During the dot com bubble S&P 500 PE peaked at 44.2 b4 burst. The current S&P500 PE is about 29.72 still not as extreme as during the dot com bubble. Need to monitor the US economy strength if it starts to show weakness then probably the burst will come. For the time being, the US economy is still in good shape.

上网找pdf就可以了。。。我是howard marks的fans，这本书我当然读过，所以我知道他每次的bubble prediction都是准的。我只是point out他在memo里面没提到的几个点，还有我不agree的地方，毕竟他也说了不清楚这个industry（他老人家一直都是focus on credit的investment）。
million dollar question是，到底CSP的AI accelator需求到几时才见顶，到几时他们才觉得oversupply？肯定会有这么一天的，不过是几时？就比如我也知道总有一天会发生熊市，不过是几时？

比如说excel，现在还是有人卖excel课程，教别人怎样manually用equation，画graph等等的function。
当Microsoft fully adopt整个excel with AI的时候（现在叫copilot) ，我们可以用语言prompt出graphs, artifical data等等。。。如果这是bubble，那样我不知道你在打飞机还是。。。
当然Microsoft希望全部人都认为是bubble，那样他们就可以买完所有的GPU，然后独霸整个市场。

股价起的时候就diam diam，股价跌的时候一窝蜂飞出来踩。这是人性，在这个狗咬狗的市场再也普通不过。
我只是看不过有些人说AI是泡沫。这样说的人很明显就是跟风，我也说了howard marks是credit的投资者，他很少去看股市。每次他说有问题的时候，那就是股市太贵了，而不是这个科技是泡沫。如果认为ai是泡沫的话，那就去short美股的那几个Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Broadcom吧。像昨天那样的爆跌，你会赚更多。谢谢

你的想法跟我差太多了。
你关注的是股价，短期的上涨下跌以获取回酬。
我关注的是行业景气，生意的本质，科技的技术，而最好就是能了解越多越好，因为这对长期投资者来说才是最重要的。

新年快乐

我有说过不关心股价吗？
我和你的区别是，你每天看他上下赚钱发达，我则是在看一个行业长期的表现。到最后，你走你的路，我走我的路，你赚比我多是你的实力，我赚比你少是我的认知错误。
你把目光锁定在股价上，我把目光锁定在行业上。有问题吗？

新年快乐～