坏消息出尽了，SAG divestment亏损已经表现在半年前股价大跌了

中国是world largest Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) 药物原料制造地，API overcapacity产能过剩所以药物原料下跌，USD/RMB下跌对换马币，进口原料相对便宜了
同时间中国没有自己pharmaceutical brand 出来打全世界/本地市场 ，还是维持在廉价出口药物原料 不像中国车大量出口到全世界打坏市场

Pharmaceutical industry 应该算是少数行业暂时不受中国蝗军打击

很多行业业绩都在2021-2022进入高峰，原因中国COVID清零政策， 而且中国限电缺电生产减少，全世界demand over supply

有几个行业plastic packaging, petro chemical, 钢铁， 汽车，科技芯片在那一波赚大钱，股价进入高峰

1. Plastic packaging - scientx, Tguan, MFCB plastic packaging业务全部面对中国plastic packaging oversupply, 生意跌，profit margin drop股价有气没力

2. Automative
Bermaz, Sime Darby, Oriental holding
中国车2024一进入市场bermaz 就开始跳水下跌，sime darby中国业务不行了
，honda crv 不好卖了都买Jaecoo7, omoda c9

3. Petro chemical
PChem, Taiwan formosa plastic crop 2021-2022 赚大钱股价高峰，吸引中国国家企业大力投资，2年时间产能过剩
Dialog declare one of loss直接关掉关丹刚建好生产线

4. 中国缺电限产钢铁，钢铁大起价全部钢铁股价进入高峰... 2024钢铁产能过剩好在大马开始有反倾销关税，伤害没这么大

5. 芯片封装，测试3年后应该是下一波重灾区
中国国企大力投资研发芯片，任正菲说的美国山顶封锁科技，中国人求生存在山脚自己挖水井自给自足，中国已经有能力生产5nm芯片，在多3-5年科技突破绝对能廉价生产高端芯片

It’s not just AI. China’s medicines are surprising the world, too
Its firms are at the forefront of cheaper, faster drug discovery

Keytruda, a cancer medicine, ranks among the most lucrative drugs ever sold. Since its launch in 2014 it has raked in more than $130bn in sales for Merck, its American maker, including $29.5bn last year. In September last year an experimental drug did what none had done before. In late-stage trials for non-small cell lung cancer, it nearly doubled the time patients lived without the disease getting worse—to 11.1 months, compared with 5.8 months for Keytruda.
The results were stunning. So too was the nationality of the biotech company behind them. Akeso is Chinese.
In recent months China’s progress in artificial intelligence has stunned the world. A quieter yet equally significant shift is under way in biotech. China has long been known for churning out generic drugs, supplying raw ingredients and managing clinical trials for the pharmaceutical world. But its drugmakers are now also at the cutting edge, producing innovative medicines that are cheaper than the ones they compete with. China has become the second-largest developer of new drugs, behind only America (see chart 1).
As a consequence, Western drugmakers are increasingly looking east for ideas. Because of expiring drug patents, they stand to lose as much as $140bn a year in sales by 2030. Last year nearly a third of the large licensing deals they struck—those worth $50m or more—were with Chinese firms, triple the share of 2020. lek, a consultancy, estimates that during that time, the total value of drugs licensed worldwide from China rose 15-fold, to $48bn (see chart 2). In November Merck paid $588m to LaNova Medicines, another Chinese biotech firm, to secure rights to a therapy similar to that produced by Akeso.

Pharmacies OTC- Products Malaysia

In the year 2025, it is projected that the revenue in the OTC Products market in Malaysia will reach US$2.65bn.

This market is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2025-2029) of 6.75%, resulting in a market volume of US$3.45bn by 2029.

Compared to other countries Worldwide, it is worth noting that China will generate the highest revenue in the OTC Products market, with an estimated amount of US$79.99bn in 2025.

在过去的一年中，我们以补链强链为目标，加大投资并购的力度，积极开拓国
际业务。我们积极推进工业并购及合资合作，加大项目的筛选储备，并正式签署了
收购和黄药业 10%股权的交易协议；我们以香港为桥头堡成立中药发展专班，推动中
成药在港注册与上市，积极参与“粤港澳大湾区”建设，推动中药走向世界。同
时，我们国际业务实现新拓展，完成东南亚与中东地区的多国业务布局，实现多治
疗领域的产品注册销售落地；上药泰国公司完成首年度销售目标，上药菲律宾公司
完成公司设立并加快实体化运营，上药阿联酋公司完成设立注册，并启动药品注册
工作

很多人其实不知道，Ahealth 里面大股东其实是郭鹤年，他是通过新加坡wilmar 和nephew 共创子公司买入Ahealth 股份... 财报在怎么看决对不会出现Robert Kuok家族名字，成功大佬已经不敢用自己名字做生意...
就连本地人常去上市杂货连锁店，也是Kuok家族的，就找一个代言人一演就演了很多年，演到很成功很少人知道

澳洲政策clinic只能看病，医生不能私下直接配药卖给病人，医生只能开配方brand药物，病人直接去pharmacy OTC 买药物..最近本地在闹的clinic公开药物价格，总有一天本地会慢慢倾向这一做法

1. 简单来说pharmacy retail direct import 便宜药物的要过来卖，但没有直接批发去clinic，接受度不高 pharmacy counter 穿着白色外套小姐介绍你药物，就算便宜点你敢买来吃吗？

2. 发烧，咳嗽，感冒药其实也相差不多，买药也是买一整排tablet不是整盒，价钱相差不多，当然会选择买医生常开的药

3. 印度supplements Himalaya brand真的便宜，我买过来试看看，吃完了就不敢在买第二批了, 没试过买来试吃看看

4. 除非是癌症药物真的很贵，才需要去够买印度伪癌症药物，真的便宜很多

5. 咳嗽Xepa 大家都知道的，就是Ahealth 护城墙

6. 本地人去clinic看病，大部分是要拿医院那张白纸，医生顺便bundle开点本地大厂的药，没病也吃不死人的药，医生不会傻到要赚多点就去换便宜的药

如果你们有留意最近熊市pharmaceutical counter 股价没有创新低，保持着有起一点或者平盘

在去看看马股很多 sector 3mth 6mth
跌5-10% , 惨点下跌10-15％

Pharma counter行业本质比较抗经济下行，在熊市里生存下去才是硬道理

我买入Pharma counter 有个人几个看法

1. Ahealth 在特离普2 Apr搞关税大跌也没跌破前低点，已经到了主要support lvl

2. Ahealth 没有出口到美国，API China over supply 药物源料下跌， 弱美元弱人民币 马币相对走强有利进口reduce cost

3. 在经济下行，抗跌股

4. 中国没打算自创品牌廉价强占本地市场，不像中国车... 而是和Ahealth 和资公司验发药物带进本地市场

5. Covid 不会消失只会变种时不时闹一波，很多人感冒咳嗽 XEPA咳嗽药水就自然好卖了

Kotra CEO Mr Piong 未来想要朝着 biopharmaceuticals发展，kotra生产线已经可以生产注射biopharma products在努力寻找可以配和厂家... 今年年头要打vaccine流感针断货，等了3个月才有货

Ahealth Kotra生产线同样在Teknologi Cheng Melaka 都是不错公司

Kotra Appeton, 专给老人和糖尿病配方奶粉 市场上不错产品

Kotra我长期hold着，不涨不跌Div yield 5.5-6%还算不错，熊市里可以安心睡觉的股

2 Apr US Tariff retaliation Ahealth Dpharma同时下跌到很诱人价格, 买入Ahealth 同时想买入Dpharma

Dpharma a lot products contract supply to govt, 只怕里面有什么利益输送 MACC很用功专找这些査，万一只要一闹在熊市里下跌会被放大... 还是选择安全一点股来投资好好度过熊市，生存下来才能迎接未来牛市

Most importantly, our key competitors (e.g. Vietnam, Thailand) for the US market also experience similar tariff level. No one has an advantage over the other. We're also not competing against US local producers. For example, US doesn't make cheap furniture, with or without the tariff barriers. So the competitive landscape in the US remains largely unchanged for Malaysia.

The 19% tariff will be mostly borne by US importers and/or US consumers. Malaysia exporters with single digit profit margin could not foot the bill without going out of business! Effectively the tariff is a consumption tax on US companies and citizens.

As for Malaysia slashing tariff for US goods, anyway the starting point is already low at about 5%. Slashing to zero/ almost zero probably doesn't make much of a difference for most products anyway. Except some sensitive sectors, like cars as you mentioned. But we have yet to know the details.

The semiconductor sector is currently exempted pending Trump's sectorial tariff decision. That will have a greater impact on Malaysia. But any high tariff is going to hurt the US companies producing in Malaysia, like Texas Instrument, Intel etc, These companies will lobby Trump to protect their own interest.