Our website is made possible by displaying non-intrusive online advertisements to our visitors.
Please consider supporting us by disabling or pausing your ad blocker.
We have read stories about how some of the Malaysian media groups “suddenly” have to close down their newspaper operations due digital disruption. Digital disruption does not happen overnight and you would have thought that companies would have years to prepare for this.
One good example of a company that took step to anticipate digital disruption is Asia File. This is a global filing company. We all know that digital technology is changing the way we store documents and the demand for files will continue to decline.
Asia File recognized this and for the past decade, it had stopped expanding its filing business. Instead it diversified into food and consumer wares about 7 years ago. This have given it a possible non-stationery growth path. But it is not clear whether this can be as big as the stationery business. So the company is still looking for other ventures.
This good story is that its stationery business is a cash cow and it is still not clear how long it will take for the demand for files to become negligible. In the meantime, the company is using the cash and time to build up replacement businesses.
Ever since coming across an article suggesting that the packaging sector would benefit from the growth of online retailing, I have been hunting for packing companies. My search went beyond Bursa and included US.
Why the US? In 2023, the total return (dividend + capital gain) for the Bursa KLCI was about 3%. The S&P 500 achieved 26%. Even accounting for forex losses, you can see why the US is better. But this does not mean buying blindly. You still need to do fundamental analysis. Take the example of Avery. https://i.postimg.cc/C1cQgNs2/Avery-Dennison.png
This is NYSE a global materials science and digital identification solutions company. Despite its acquisitions, its revenue only grew at 4.4% CAGR over the past 10 years. While ROE and net margins have been trending up, there were no improvements in other operating parameters, I think that the stock is fully priced.
On the other hand, Bursa Asia File has diversified into food packaging. Not exactly sexy, but it has a margin of safety. The only concern is how long it will take for the market to re-rate. If I can find an equivalent US packaging company, that would be priority. In the absence, Asia File is there. https://www.i4value.asia/2021/03/are-these-outstanding-stocks-what-to.html#more
As a stationery company, Asia File faces the threat of digital disruption. The Group has recognized this by not expanding into this sector. Instead, it diversified into food wares and consumer wares that in 2023 accounted for 16% of the Group revenue.
Both the stationery and food/consumer wares businesses are profitable and generating good returns.
The challenge is that about 2/3 of its capital is tied up in non-operating assets that generated low returns. This has resulted in overall low returns for the Group. It would have to depend on new ventures to rectify this. The Group is financially strong and this will give it time to deliver these.
My valuation showed that it is not a value trap. There is sufficient margins of safety to invest at the current market price. But you need to have a long-term view. https://i.postimg.cc/J05QW2qr/Chart-9-min.png
