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There were plenty of opportunities to make money in this counter if you paid attention, the RCUIDS was trading below the ordinary shares giving an arbitrage opportunity back in early 2022, not only it is an arbitrage, the icing on the cake is that you will be entitled to 8% interest versus leaving your money sitting in CAPITALA ordinary shares. In mid 2024, there were strong signs that Capital A came up with a plan for PN17 if you follow Tony's LinkedIn & Instagram closely. I basically sold all of my RCUIDS and bought back CAPITALA which net me about 100k+ more shares than I would have if I just kept my RCUIDS, there was a RM0.1 difference between CAPITALA and the RCUIDS during the middle of the year which I took advantage of.
Anyway aside from that, we are at the last stretch and we have already passed the major hurdles, getting out of PN17 isn't something that is done overnight and management has clearly outlined the steps and timeline taken to get out of PN17. It is just a matter of when and not how
Because I follow Capital A and its subsidiaries more closely than you, it is already hinted in this webinar by Tony that there will be a massive unrealised forex gains for Q3, I will link it to you
If you are going to bring up AA Indonesia, then it is only fair if you bring up AA Thailand which they have generated a net profit of 3.446b baht. I don't deny that Q3 is traditionally a slower quarter for AA but the huge unrealised forex gains is too big to disregard
Care to explain why do you think there is a chance for this quarter to be red? Personally, I don't understand why there is even a debate on whether Q3 will be a profitable quarter or not, Capital A has a lot of debt that is denominated in USD and that alone allows Capital A to record potentially RM1b+ in terms of unrealised forex gains due to the appreciation of the Ringgit along with other ASEAN currencies against the USD.
TLDR: No brainer that it will be a very green quarter due to unrealised forex gains for Q3
Impossible to be a red qr because of unrealised forex gains, they will likely book in a net profit of RM1b+
Insider also has been acquiring shares recently, you can look up on Bursa announcements
This is going on the assumption that Capital A receives the high court's approval.
Late December 2024 to early January 2025 if Bursa allows Capital A to use their Q2 2024 & Q3 2024 results to demonstrate profitability. If Bursa doesn't allow Capital A to use their Q2 2024 & Q3 2024 results, then Capital A will have to wait maybe till May 2025 so that they can use their Q4 2024 & Q1 2025 results.
In my opinion, it is more or less a given that Capital A will be getting out of PN17, the question is when. If you look at the circular for the disposal, you will know that in FY23 they are profitable with a PAT of RM91.4m, I will list the businesses below along with the FY23 PAT/LAT
1) ADE - profit after tax of RM115.3m
2) AirAsia MOVE - profit after tax of RM58.1m
3) Teleport - loss after tax of RM3.1m
4) Bigpay - loss after tax of RM106.9m
5) Brand AA - profit after tax of RM12.2m
6) Santan - profit after tax of RM15.8m
1) The only aid AirAsia received during COVID was a RM300m loan from the Sabah Development Bank. Meanwhile Malaysia Airlines received a RM3.6b cash injection by Khazanah (They have received RM31.6b+ in bailouts up to date)
2) Strictness in terms of hand carry is in line with other major low cost carriers like Ryanair, recently I took Jetstar and they were strict with hand carry as well and this will likely be a common trend among low-cost carriers in the future
For reason number 1, Tony has my respect since there is only so much he could do realistically given the financial impact from COVID and the lack of aid. Remember, the former CEO of Malaysia Airlines is holding Capital A shares, even he has confidence in the company
